⬱ Return to the Concurrent Session 3 Agenda

Moderators

• Aimee Flannery, Jacobs
• Maria Pena

Agenda

1. Overview of National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) 23-32 Transportation Asset Risk and Resilience
2. Review of Threat-Asset Pairs Included in the Future Manual
3. Components of Risk Equations:
   1. Review of Threat Probability/Sources
   2. Review of Vulnerability Estimation Models
   3. Review of Consequences Models
4. Overview of Resilience Models
5. Demonstration of a Threat-Asset Pair Model
6. Potential Uses of Outputs of the Models
7. Next Steps and Overall Remaining Project Schedule

Abstract

NCHRP 23-32 Transportation Asset Risk & Resilience is a $3.5 million investment in research to support transportation agencies in their quantitative assessment of asset risk and system resilience from a range of natural and direct threats. The 36-month project began in November 2023 with an anticipated completion by November 2026. The intended outcome of the project is a comprehensive manual for consideration of adoption by American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) as an industry standard for the assessment and management of natural and direct threats to transportation assets and services. Example transportation assets included in the assessment methods are as follows:

• Bridges
• Pavement
• Roadway Prism
• Rail

Natural threats included in the assessments are as follows:

• Riverine Flooding
• Sea-Level Rise
• Rockfall
• Heat
• Erosion from Flooding

The workshop will provide participants with an overview of the entire project with an emphasis on providing hands-on exercises to share with the transportation asset management (TAM) community the types of quantitative models for risk assessment that are intended to be included in the final project deliverables. Example hands-on exercises include methods to assess erosion risk to roadway embankments and flood risk to highway bridges. The methods developed through NCHRP 23-32 build upon early quantitative risk models and move the methods beyond science-informed methods to those closely aligned with design parameters. The outcomes of the risk models provide the user with a monetary quantification of risk to both the owner and the traveler from relevant threats such as flooding. The analyst will also be provided methods to utilize this information in decision-making such as treatment selection or alternative selection for preliminary design. During the workshop, participants will be given a chance to work with the draft models and provide feedback to the research team of the risk models as to their usefulness within their decision-making processes and the challenges they envision with their deployment.

The manual also includes methods for assessing system resilience. Building upon previous research, the manual seeks to integrate research and methods from existing tools such as the Highway Capacity Manual to align data sources and resources for the user. The workshop will also provide an opportunity for participants to analyze system resilience through hands-on exercises and provide feedback on the complexity and usefulness of the resilience assessment models to the research team.